Trump's First 100 Days: Stock Market Plunges
The S&P 500's 7.9% drop in Trump's first 100 days, tariff impacts, and Nixon-era comparisons.
The stock market has faced sharp declines in the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term, with the S&P 500 falling 7.9% since his January 20, 2025, inauguration. This marks the worst performance for a president’s opening 100 days since Richard Nixon’s second term in 1973, when the index dropped 9.9%. Investors are navigating uncertainty fueled by Trump’s bold tariff policies, raising concerns about inflation and a potential recession.
Tariffs Disrupt Market Stability
Trump’s tariff announcements have driven much of the market’s volatility. On April 2, 2025, he introduced sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, including a 10% baseline on most global imports and up to 145% on Chinese goods. The S&P 500 tumbled 10% over two days, briefly entering bear market territory. A 90-day tariff pause announced on April 9 triggered a 9.5% single-day rally, the largest since 2008, but lingering doubts have kept markets on edge.
Global Trade Faces Strain
China responded with 84% duties on U.S. goods, while Canada and the European Union added their own counter-tariffs. These trade disputes have disrupted supply chains, increasing costs for businesses and consumers. Everyday items like coffee and bananas now face price hikes due to tariffs on countries like Guatemala. The Yale Budget Lab projects these policies could add $2,100 to annual household expenses.
Parallels with Nixon’s Era
The comparison to Nixon’s presidency is notable. In 1973, the S&P 500 declined amid rising inflation and the Watergate scandal, which led to Nixon’s 1974 resignation. Like Trump, Nixon dealt with economic challenges from policy choices, including anti-inflation measures that contributed to a 1973-1975 recession. Today, Trump’s tariff-driven instability has sparked similar warnings of prolonged market uncertainty.
Historical Perspective
Since 1944, the S&P 500 has typically gained 2.1% in a president’s first 100 days. Trump’s current term contrasts sharply with his first, which saw a 4% rise. Other presidents, like Joe Biden (+8.5%) and John F. Kennedy (+8.9%), enjoyed strong starts. The current 7.9% drop is the second-worst since World War II, surpassed only by Nixon’s 9.9% decline.
Market Trends and Future Outlook
Some sectors have held up better than others. Consumer staples have gained ground as investors turn to safer assets. However, tech leaders like Apple and Nike have suffered, with shares falling over 9% after the April tariff news. Small-cap stocks and the Nasdaq have also slipped into bear market territory, down 11.5% since January.
Analysts are wary but see potential for short-term recovery. Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac predicts a possible market bounce but cautions about ongoing risks. Goldman Sachs now estimates a 45% chance of a 2025 recession, driven by tariff-related disruptions. Federal Reserve officials face challenges, as tariffs could push inflation above 3%, complicating monetary policy.
